Event contracts

Markets

Prices on usage, energy, labor, and capability. Not an exchange. Not advice.

• Anthropic

  $3.0m vol

  Best model, end of September?

  Yes94.6¢No5.4¢

• Capital

  $3.2m vol

  Anthropic IPO by 31 Dec 2026?

  Yes85¢No15¢

• Google

  $519k vol

  Gemini 4.0 out by 30 Nov?

  Yes89.4¢No10.6¢

• Capability

  $248k vol

  OpenAI claims AGI before 2027?

  Yes23.5¢No76.5¢

• xAI

  $35k vol

  Grok 4.7+ by 18 Sep?

  Yes64.2¢No35.8¢

• Anthropic

  $118k vol

  Best agent, end of September?

  Yes90¢No10¢